A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
