Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
